Thursday, May 29, 2014

Sustainability 105


Sustainability 105

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Sustainability Quiz 2 Answers


Now that finals are over and you finally graduated.  It’s about time!  Here it was.  Time for another quiz.  You are beginning to slack off.  You need to be reenergized with a quiz that you can’t possibly flunk.

1. How much verified reserve oil is currently in the Unites States?

Answer 1.  Just about any number will do, provided that you’re happy with it.  Only you can decide whether it’s important to strive for hard data or accept what the hype from advertisers and politicians say is true.  Here is a hint.  What advertisers and politicians say is frequently true, but their words are often cloaked in such a way as to hide their real impact.

ü If you get your number from an internet report, what is the date of the report.

ü If you invent a silly guess number just to see where this might be going, invent a date.

ü Watch out for lookup number scales: M means thousands on a Latin scale; MM means millions on a Latin scale; I use SI units where M (Mega) means millions, G (Giga) means billions, and T (Terra) means trillions.  Most reports use Latin scales: tricky devils aren’t they?  If you get confused as an engineering, math, or science major.  Shoot for a number in barrels (bbl), and Oh, btw, barrel size isn’t standardized worldwide.  Aren’t you glad this isn’t a real test?

ü Here is a hint.  I found 26.8 G-bbl of oil in a 2012 report.  What did you find?  Did you get a better date or number?  What might have caused that?

2. How much undiscovered oil is currently in the Unites States?

Answer 2.  Same as Answer 1.

ü No, I’m not a fruit cake, there really is such a thing.  It was discovered by seismic echos, compared to know production formations, and given a probability of success from the comparrison.  Slick, huh?  These oil men are sneaky.

ü The same rules apply.  Invent a number if you want too.  Watch out for scale sizes.  Get help if you need it.

ü Here is a hint.  The biggest number I could find was 134.0 G-bbl of oil in a 2012 report.  That is a serious lot of oil folks.

3. How much oil is currently in production in the Unites States?

Answer 3.  Same as Answers 1 and 2.

ü I found 7 M-bbl per day.  Here is where it gets really tricky.  The lookup number was 7 MMbbl (millions, remember, Latin?).  My M means Mega, that’s millions too (SI).  But it’s per day, so we have to multiply by 365.25 days in the average year.  Who wants to do this stuff in days?  What did you come up with?  I came up with 2,557 M-bbl per day, give or take.  That’s the same as 2.557 G-bbl per day, close enough.

ü If you got a seriously bigger number, what might cause that?  Take a stab at it.

4. Now divide the answer for question 1 by the answer for question 3.  What did you get?

Answer 4.  Check your calculator or computer.

ü I got 10 years.  Make sure your units are the same size when you divide.

ü This is the minimum number of years for oil to last.  Scary ain’t it?

ü But wait!  My report was made in 2012, this is 2014.  I’ve got to subtract the two years that are already gone.  That’s 8 years left.  What did you get?

5. Look at question 2 again.  What do you think the odds are for finding all that undiscovered oil?  Multiply that number by the answer for question 2.

Answer 5.  Same as Answer 4.

ü I’m an optimist.  I used 100%.  Gee, I wish that were really true.  Don’t you wish that every well drilled came in like the Mary Sudik, that blew oil all the way from OKC’s south side to Norman.  Oh well, back to reality.

ü Still 134.0 G-bbl of oil at 100%.

6. Now divide the answer for question 5 by the answer for question 3.  What did you get?

Answer 6.  Same as Answers 4 and 5.

ü I got 53 years.

ü Add that to the final answer in question 4.  Hmm…  8 + 53 = 61 years.

ü This is the maximum number of years for oil to last.  As Porky Pig used to say at the end of the kids cartoons, “Yuk.  Yuk.  That’s all there is folks.”

ü I don’t care if you got 80 and 5,300.  This is science folks, not advertising or politics.  It would be nice if one of us got the right answer though.  Then we could come up with a plan.

7. Here is a hardball question.  How long will that oil last if we speed up production and become the world’s largest producer of oil?

Answer 7.  Here is the equation you need to make the calculation.

T = 1 / ln(b) * ln[ln(b) * R / y0 + 1]

The number b is a business or political descision.  If you decide to grow any industry at 5% per year, b = 1.05 and ln(b) .05.  For 2% growth, b = 1.02 and ln (b) ≈ .02.  R/y0 are the results we calculated in Questions 4 and 6: namely 8 and 61 years, respectively.  Eight years is so short it doesn’t change much: 2% growth reduces to 7.4 years, while 5% growth reduces to 6.7 years.  The undiscovered oil allows more working room, provided that we find it.  Sixty-one years is cut to 40 years at 2% and 28 years at 5%.  When our government plans a 5% annual growth in the economy, they are planning to destroy our nation.  You do the math.

8. Want another one?  What would we have to do to make that oil last forever?

Answer 8.  This is the theory of Sustained Availability, which is the use of exponential equations to make a substance last forever (theoretically).

k = 1/A, and
t = ln(2) / k 0.693 / k,

So using the results for Questions 4 or 6: 1/8 = .125 or 12.5% and 1/61 = .016 or 1.6%.  These numbers mean that if we have 8 years worth of oil left, we can make it last forever by reducing consumption/production by 12.5% per year, every year for eternity; or if we have 61 years worth of oil left, we can make it last forever by reducing consumption/production by 1.6% per year.  As a practicality this cannot be made to work forever.

The second equation suggests that a half life for 8 years worth of oil with consumption reduced at 12.5% per year will be over 5.5 years and with continued careful conservation of this precious resource we can make it last almost 28 years.  Careful conservation can stretch a 61 year supply of oil to over 211 years.

A 12.5% reduction for at least 5 years is pretty hard to achieve.  Reducing consumption by 1.6% per year for 5 years should be a piece of cake.  It should be obvious that greater reductions for longer periods will extend the life of the resource even more.

9. Last question.  It’s your move.  What is your move?

Additional bonus questions


10. Repeat questions 1-9 for natural gas.

11. Repeat questions 1-9 for natural gas liquids (NGL).

12. Repeat questions 1-9 for coal.

13. Repeat questions 1-9 for forests.

14. Repeat questions 1-9 for any other resource of interest to you.

Final Grade


As far as this quiz is concerned you got an A++, 105%, better than Ivory soap.  Your real grade will be determined by your performance in life and by history.

Monday, May 26, 2014

May 26, 2014 Monday Message


Αἰωνία ἡ μνήμη.
May your memory be eternal.
Αἰωνία ἡ μνήμη.

... in the name of the Father, and of the Son, and of the Holy Ghost.  Amen.  Through the prayers of our holy Fathers, Lord Jesus Christ our God, have mercy on us and save us.  Amen.  Glory to You, our God, Glory to You.

O Heavenly King, the Comforter, the Spirit of truth, You are everywhere and fill all things, Treasury of blessings, and Giver of life: come and abide in us, and cleanse us from every impurity, and save our souls, O Good One.

Holy God, Holy Mighty, Holy Immortal, have mercy on us (three times).

Glory be to the Father, and to the Son, and to the Holy Ghost, as it is now, was in the beginning, and ever shall be, world without end.  Amen.

May 26, 2014 Monday Message, Memorial Day

In honor and memory of American fallen heroes, the sacred dead….[1]

·       American Revolutionary War...................... 4,435

·       The War of 1812.......................................... 2,260

·       The Mexican War....................................... 13,283

·       The Civil War........................................... 618,000

·       Indian Wars[2]................................... over 49,000

·       The Spanish-American War......................... 2,446

·       WWI......................................................... 116,516

·       WWII........................................................ 405,399

·       Korea.......................................................... 36,574

·       Vietnam...................................................... 58,220

·       Gulf................................................................. 383

·       Iraq/Afghanistan........................................... 6,607

In honor of other dead

·       The Jewish Holocaust........................... 7,000,000

·       The Christian Martyrs of Russia-Ukraine.............. 50,000,000

·       Christian Martyrs throughout history.......... untold

·       All of our departed ancestors.................................

Αἰωνία ἡ μνήμη.
May your memory be eternal.
Αἰωνία ἡ μνήμη.



[1] http://prospect.org/article/american-war-dead-numbers
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Indian_Wars

Sunday, May 25, 2014

May 25, 2014 Sunday Sermon


... in the name of the Father, and of the Son, and of the Holy Ghost.  Amen.  Through the prayers of our holy Fathers, Lord Jesus Christ our God, have mercy on us and save us.  Amen.  Glory to You, our God, Glory to You.


Holy God, Holy Mighty, Holy Immortal, have mercy on us (three times).

Glory be to the Father, and to the Son, and to the Holy Ghost, as it is now, was in the beginning, and ever shall be, world without end.  Amen.

May 25, 2014 Sunday Sermon

The Scripture

Psalm 119:18

Open thou mine eyes, that I may behold wondrous things out of thy law.

Ephesians 1:17-23 (Paul’s Prayer)

That the God of our Lord Jesus Christ, the Father of glory, may give you the spirit of wisdom and revelation in the knowledge of Him: the eyes of your understanding being enlightened; that ye may know what is the hope of His calling, and what the riches of the glory of His inheritance in the saints, and what is the exceeding greatness of His power toward us who believe, according to the working of His mighty power, which He wrought in Christ, when He raised Him from the dead, and set Him at His own right hand in the heavenly places, far above all principality, and power, and might, and dominion, and every name that is named, not only in this world, but also in that which is to come: and has put all things under His feet, and gave Him to be the head over all things to the church, which is His body, His fullness that fills all in all.

The Epistle

2 Corinthians 4:6-12 (from the reading of 6-15)

For God, who commanded the light to shine out of darkness, hath shined in our hearts, to give the light of the knowledge of the glory of God in the face of Jesus Christ.

However, We have this treasure in earthen vessels, so that the excellency of the power may be of God, and not of us.  We are troubled on every side, yet not distressed.  We are perplexed, yet not in despair.  We are persecuted, yet not forsaken.  We are cast down, yet not destroyed; always bearing about in the body the dying of the Lord Jesus, so that the life also of Jesus might be made manifest in our body: for we who live are always delivered to death for Jesus’ sake, so that the life also of Jesus might be made manifest in our mortal flesh.  So then death works in us, but life in you.

The Gospel

John 9:25 b (from the reading of 1-38)

“One thing I do know, that though I was blind, now I see.”

The Homily

We may ask for the Holy Ghost to enter our lives.  When the Holy Ghost enters our lives He heals our blindness, so that we can see and understand the Gospel of Jesus in both heart and mind with all due humility.[1]



[1] If you have been blessed or helped by any of these meditations, please repost, share, or use any of them as you wish.
These meditations are not controlled by Creative Commons or other licenses, such as: copyright, CC, BY, SA, NC, or ND.  They are designed and intended for your free participation.  They were freely received, and are freely given.  No other permission is required for their use.

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Sustainability 104


Sustainability 104

Thursday, May 01, 2014

Sustainability Quiz 2?


Time for another quiz.  You are beginning to slack off.  You need to be reenergized with a quiz that you can’t possibly flunk.

1. How much verified reserve oil is currently in the Unites States?

ü If you get your number from an internet report, what is the date of the report.

ü If you invent a silly guess number just to see where this might be going, invent a date.

ü Watch out for lookup number scales: M means thousands on a Latin scale; MM means millions on a Latin scale; I use SI units where M (Mega) means millions, G (Giga) means billions, and T (Terra) means trillions.  Most reports use Latin scales: tricky devils aren’t they?  If you get confused as an engineering, math, or science major.  Shoot for a number in barrels (bbl), and Oh, btw, barrel size isn’t standardized worldwide.  Aren’t you glad this isn’t a real test?

ü Here is a hint.  I found 26.8 G-bbl of oil in a 2012 report.  What did you find?  Did you get a better date or number?  What might have caused that?

2. How much undiscovered oil is currently in the Unites States?

ü No, I’m not a fruit cake, there really is such a thing.  It was discovered by seismic echos, compared to know production formations, and given a probability of success from the comparison.  Slick, huh?  These oil men are sneaky.

ü The same rules apply.  Invent a number if you want too.  Watch out for scale sizes.  Get help if you need it.

ü Here is a hint.  The biggest number I could find was 134.0 G-bbl of oil in a 2012 report.  That is a serious lot of oil folks.

3. How much oil is currently in production in the Unites States?

ü I found 7 M-bbl per day.  Here is where it gets really tricky.  The lookup number was 7 MMbbl (millions, remember, Latin?).  My M means Mega, that’s millions too (SI).  But it’s per day, so we have to multiply by 365.25 days in the average year.  Who wants to do this stuff in days?  What did you come up with?  I came up with 2,557 M-bbl per day, give or take.  That’s the same as 2.557 G-bbl per day, close enough.

ü If you got a seriously bigger number, what might cause that?  Take a stab at it.

4. Now divide the answer for question 1 by the answer for question 3.  What did you get?

ü I got 10 years.  Make sure your units are the same size when you divide.

ü This is the minimum number of years for oil to last.  Scary ain’t it?

ü But wait!  My report was made in 2012, this is 2014.  I’ve got to subtract the two years that are already gone.  That’s 8 years left.  What did you get?

5. Look at question 2 again.  What do you think the odds are for finding all that undiscovered oil?  Multiply that number by the answer for question 2.

ü I’m an optimist.  I used 100%.  Gee, I wish that were really true.  Don’t you wish that every well drilled came in like the Mary Sudik, that blew oil all the way from OKC’s south side to Norman.  Oh well, back to reality.

ü Still 134.0 G-bbl of oil at 100%.

6. Now divide the answer for question 5 by the answer for question 3.  What did you get?

ü I got 53 years.

ü Add that to the final answer in question 4.  Hmm…  8 + 53 = 61 years.

ü This is the maximum number of years for oil to last.  As Porky Pig used to say at the end of the kids cartoons, "Yuk.  Yuk.  That’s all there is folks."

ü I don’t care if you got 80 and 5,300.  This is science folks, not advertising or politics.  It would be nice if one of us got the right answer though.  Then we could come up with a plan.

7. Here is a hardball question.  How long will that oil last if we speed up production and become the world’s largest producer of oil?

8. Want another one?  What would we have to do to make that oil last forever?

9. Last question.  It’s your move.  What is your move?