Sustainability 103

Sustainability 103

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

The Source of the Question

Most discussions of sustainability are clouded with all sorts of confusing emotional and political issues.  All of these tend to argument; none of them tend to solutions.  To develop sustainability solutions we must start with simple plans; we must strip sustainability down to its raw science, devoid of all emotional and political issues.

Sustainability Quiz 1 Answers?

It must be finals week.  Tests are quite popular right now.  Here is a warm-up quiz to get us in shape.  We are now a world leader in NG, NGL, and oil production, thanks in part to the development of new technologies such as horizontal drilling and fracking.  We hear statements like that every day in the news.  We hear that it produces many, many jobs.  Here is the quiz.

1. What does it mean to be a production leader?

Answer.  It means that there is a plan in place to maintain steady growth at least until leadership is attained, and very possibly beyond.  Even a seemingly modest growth of 1% will double production in roughly seventy years.  Steady growth at a fixed percentage is exponential growth.  Doubling will continue as long as steady growth policy remains in place.  It also means that we are probably the consumption leader.

2. What is the relationship between production and consumption?

Answer.  What is produced is inevitably consumed.  Fossil fuel production frequently has a shelf life.  Nobody wants to buy or use stale gas.  The relationship is necessarily one to one.

3. What percentage of production is burned, creating waste heat?

Answer.  All of it: 100%.

4. Assuming that global warming exists: what is the relationship between production and global warming, if any?

Answer.  Unless directly offset by other factors, production has a direct detrimental effect on global warming.  This indicates that when production ceases we may need to be concerned with global cooling.

5. How long will our production leadership last in years?

Answer.  Between 8 and 60 years depending on our ability to produce undiscovered oil, NG, and NGL; depending on fluxuations in market costs for these fuels; and depending on changes in the growth rate of production.  A negative growth rate would actually extend this time period.

6. What will we do for energy when and if we ever stop being a production leader?

Answer.  We will either have alternative production in place, or we will do without.  This means that energy dependent businesses will shut down if they cannot get energy.  We will go out of business.

7. What, if any, is the relationship between production leadership and alternative energy sources?

Answer.  Alternative energy sources must be developed to maintain production leadership, or even produce enough energy to survive.

8. What, if any, is the relationship between production leadership and food supply?

Answer.  Almost all food is produced with fossil fuel machinery, fossil fuel fertilizers, herbicides, and insecticides.  The relationship is direct.  When fossil fuels stop production, fossil fuel dependent food sources will also stop production.

9. What, if any, is the relationship between production leadership and medical treatment of any kind including COTS medications?

Answer.  When fossil fuel production leadership ceases, fossil fuel dependent medical practices will also cease.

The overall picture is that we are currently looking at a nationwide shutdown of all fossil fuel dependent services in 8 to 60 years.  Many of these services are life essential.  Production leadership only threatens to accelerate this problem.  It is a temporary, short term fix for job creation that inevitably leads to long term death and disaster.  This is the direct opposite of sustainability.