Wednesday, April 30, 2014

The Apostles Creed

The Apostles Creed


The words of the Apostles Creed, “He descended into Hell,” are incessantly questioned.  The ancient Church has long held that after Jesus crucifixion, He went to the realm of the dead and spoiled it, “trampling down death by death.”  Even though there are several passages of Scripture that support this, it is always exciting to find new ones.  Here are two verses that I don’t believe I have ever noticed before in this light.

1 Peter 3:18-20 — “For Christ has also once suffered for sins, the just for the unjust, that He might bring us to God, being put to death in the flesh, but made alive by the Spirit: by which also he went and preached unto the spirits in prison; which were sometimes disobedient, when once the patience of God waited in the days of Noah, while the ark was being prepared, wherein few, that is, eight souls were saved by water.”


1 Peter 4: 6 — “Because of this the gospel was preached also to those who are dead, so that they might be judged according to men in the flesh, but live according to God in the spirit.

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Sustainability 103


Sustainability 103

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

The Source of the Question


Most discussions of sustainability are clouded with all sorts of confusing emotional and political issues.  All of these tend to argument; none of them tend to solutions.  To develop sustainability solutions we must start with simple plans; we must strip sustainability down to its raw science, devoid of all emotional and political issues.

Sustainability Quiz 1 Answers?


It must be finals week.  Tests are quite popular right now.  Here is a warm-up quiz to get us in shape.  We are now a world leader in NG, NGL, and oil production, thanks in part to the development of new technologies such as horizontal drilling and fracking.  We hear statements like that every day in the news.  We hear that it produces many, many jobs.  Here is the quiz.

1. What does it mean to be a production leader?

Answer.  It means that there is a plan in place to maintain steady growth at least until leadership is attained, and very possibly beyond.  Even a seemingly modest growth of 1% will double production in roughly seventy years.  Steady growth at a fixed percentage is exponential growth.  Doubling will continue as long as steady growth policy remains in place.  It also means that we are probably the consumption leader.

2. What is the relationship between production and consumption?

Answer.  What is produced is inevitably consumed.  Fossil fuel production frequently has a shelf life.  Nobody wants to buy or use stale gas.  The relationship is necessarily one to one.

3. What percentage of production is burned, creating waste heat?

Answer.  All of it: 100%.

4. Assuming that global warming exists: what is the relationship between production and global warming, if any?

Answer.  Unless directly offset by other factors, production has a direct detrimental effect on global warming.  This indicates that when production ceases we may need to be concerned with global cooling.

5. How long will our production leadership last in years?

Answer.  Between 8 and 60 years depending on our ability to produce undiscovered oil, NG, and NGL; depending on fluxuations in market costs for these fuels; and depending on changes in the growth rate of production.  A negative growth rate would actually extend this time period.

6. What will we do for energy when and if we ever stop being a production leader?

Answer.  We will either have alternative production in place, or we will do without.  This means that energy dependent businesses will shut down if they cannot get energy.  We will go out of business.

7. What, if any, is the relationship between production leadership and alternative energy sources?

Answer.  Alternative energy sources must be developed to maintain production leadership, or even produce enough energy to survive.

8. What, if any, is the relationship between production leadership and food supply?

Answer.  Almost all food is produced with fossil fuel machinery, fossil fuel fertilizers, herbicides, and insecticides.  The relationship is direct.  When fossil fuels stop production, fossil fuel dependent food sources will also stop production.

9. What, if any, is the relationship between production leadership and medical treatment of any kind including COTS medications?

Answer.  When fossil fuel production leadership ceases, fossil fuel dependent medical practices will also cease.

The overall picture is that we are currently looking at a nationwide shutdown of all fossil fuel dependent services in 8 to 60 years.  Many of these services are life essential.  Production leadership only threatens to accelerate this problem.  It is a temporary, short term fix for job creation that inevitably leads to long term death and disaster.  This is the direct opposite of sustainability.

Saturday, April 26, 2014

Sustainability 102

It must be finals week.  Tests are quite popular right now.  Here is a warm-up quiz to get us in shape.  We are now a world leader in NG, NGL, and oil production, thanks in part to the development of new technologies such as horizontal drilling and fracking.  We hear statements like that every day in the news.  We hear that it produces many, many jobs.  Here is the quiz.

1. What does it mean to be a production leader?
2. What is the relationship between production and consumption?
3. What percentage of production is burned, creating waste heat?
4. Assuming that global warming exists: what is the relationship between production and global warming, if any?
5. How long will our production leadership last in years?
6. What will we do for energy when and if we ever stop being a production leader?
7. What, if any, is the relationship between production leadership and alternative energy sources?
8. What, if any, is the relationship between production leadership and food supply?
9. What, if any, is the relationship between production leadership and medical treatment of any kind including COTS medications?

Monday, April 14, 2014

Sustainability 101


Sustainability 101

Monday, April 14, 2014

The Source of the Question


Most discussions of sustainability are clouded with all sorts of confusing emotional and political issues.  All of these tend to argument; none of them tend to solutions.  To develop sustainability solutions we must start with simple plans; we must strip sustainability down to its raw science, devoid of all emotional and political issues.

What is Sustainability?


Sustainability is a closed thermodynamic cycle that at any point of its development returns to the same form that it had before at that point.  Sounds complicated, doesn’t it?

An Example from High School Chemistry.


All living things and a good number of non-living things are made up of chemicals called hydrocarbons.  For the purposes of this conversation we don’t even care what these specific hydrocarbons look like.  All of them burn in the presence of oxygen (air) and other oxidizers, like chlorine.  In every case the products are carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide (if burning is incomplete), water, and some other waste by-products.  For our purposes we will even ignore the possibility of carbon monoxide.

CmHnXXX + (m + 1/4n) O2 m CO2 + 1/2n H2O

We don’t even have to know if I balanced the equation correctly or not….  We only have to worry about two things.  One. Does the reverse of this equation exist?  Two. Does the reverse of this equation actually happen?  Yes, in nature, plants turn carbon dioxide and water back into hydrocarbons and oxygen.  Plants and animals are more or less balanced in a sustainable process.  If this were not true, we would eventually deplete all the oxygen from the air and we would all die.

CmHnXXX + (m + 1/4n) O2 m CO2 + 1/2n H2O

If the reversed arrow in the equation does not exist, sustainability does not exist either.

Of course it is solar radiation that makes this possible, and we lose a lot of waste heat to space, so the universe must be included in our closed thermodynamic cycle, or else we would need to rewrite our definition to say, except for radiation.

Except for radiation (and other heat losses), sustainability is a closed thermodynamic cycle that at any point of its development returns to the same form that it had before at that point.

A Peanut Butter Sandwich.


Let’s make a very simple peanut butter sandwich.  We will use only two slices of bread, a tablespoon of peanut butter, and a knife with which to spread the peanut butter.  Simple.  Or is it?

The system is not sustainable until we wash and dry the knife and put it back in the drawer from whence it came.  Sustainability, requires cleanliness.  Everything has a place, and everything must be returned to its place or the system is not sustainable.  Simple.

The system is not sustainable until we plant, nurture, harvest, grind into flour, mix, bake, slice, wrap, and deliver exactly two slices of bread back to the bread container from whence it came.  For our purposes this is a very simple bread consisting of only flour and water, and we ignored the water.

Nor is the system sustainable until we plant, nurture, harvest, grind into paste, and deliver exactly one tablespoon of peanut butter back in the jar from whence it came.

Our simple peanut butter sandwich doesn’t look so simple now, does it?

Simplicity of Sustainability.


The key operative words are, “from whence it came.”  Nothing is sustainable unless it is returned to its original pristine condition, or at least to a reasonable facsimile thereof.

Just look at all the things we have taken for granted here.  In washing the knife, we did not include the very necessary processes of detergent manufacture and recycling, or the weaving drying towels, or the water itself.  We did not consider that it takes more than flour and water to make bread, the sustainability of packaging, the source of heat for baking, and literally thousands of different details.  Nor did we consider any of the complexity of peanut or grain farming, irrigation, fertilization, and the thousands upon thousands of processes involved in agriculture and manufacturing.  There is far more in a jar of peanut butter than ground peanuts in a glass or plastic jar with a metal or plastic lid.

What else have we have taken for granted?  Can we put coal, crude oil, or natural gas back into the ground from whence it came?  Can we even replace what we have taken with a reasonable facsimile, such as charcoal?  The only way to sustain fossil fuels is never to use them at all.  I’m not recommending that; it’s just a simple scientific fact.

Developing a culture of sustainability must begin with simple tasks, such as me committing to pick up after myself, doing my share of the dishes and laundry.  Everything has a place, and everything must be returned to the place from whence it came.

Developing a culture of sustainability must begin with small tasks, such as me starting a garden in the backyard or raising a chicken, duck, rabbit or two.  If I decide to raise minor stock for eggs and meat, where will the animal food come from?  Where will the plant food come from for my garden?  The idea of five or ten acres of sustainable independence is becoming more and more complicated.

Developing a culture of sustainability must begin with simple, small teams, such as us, or our town committing to building an independent sustainable unit; recycling everything, not just trash, everything.  Everything has a place, and everything must be returned to the place from whence it came.  We’re going to have to do it someday.  Better now than later.  It’s just less painful to do it now.

I will believe that we are developing a culture of sustainability when my town council commits to developing a town-wide sustainability plan, and when the 120,000 people who live here, commit to getting it done.  I will believe that we are developing a culture of sustainability when my personal commitment is complete.  It takes teams.  This is a big problem.  It takes individual commitment.  Ownership.  This is my problem.

Gotta run.  It’s time for me to put the dishes away and fix supper.  KISS