Arithmetic, Population and Energy, Introduction, rA

Energy Policy

Arithmetic, Population and Energy, Introduction

Revision A

For the love of the human race.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

The Source of the Question

This study report is prompted by the labors of the late Dr. Albert Allen Bartlett (1923-2013), who labored as a Professor of Physics at the University of Colorado, Boulder.  Even though he was fully qualified as a subject matter expert in physics, it is evident that his favorite topic was what might be termed the arithmetic of energy and population, an intense application of the exponential curve.  So we are indebted to Dr. Bartlett, and write this in his honor, with a view to continuing his mission.

In his lectures Dr. Bartlett challenges his listeners to check his math.  This is exactly what we intend to do.  The data with which he works is a moving target, so we will update the data, add some new data, and make suggestions, so that concerned listeners can update and check these principles regularly.  Dr. Bartlett was also a subject matter expert on the topic of Sustainability; so we shall explore that as well.

http://www.albartlett.org/

http://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Allen_Bartlett

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umFnrvcS6AQ

Why Should Energy Concern Christians?

Psalm 120:1-7

A Song of degrees.

In my distress I cried to the Lord.  He heard me.

Deliver my soul, Lord, from lying lips, from a deceitful tongue.  What shall be given to you?  What shall be done to you, false tongue?  Sharp arrows of the Mighty, with coals of juniper.

Woe is me: I live in Meshech, I dwell in the tents of Kedar!  My soul has long dwelled with him who hates peace.  I [am for] peace.  But when I speak, they [are] for war.

Why indeed, should energy and energy policy concern Christians?

·       If our warnings help people to live better, safer lives; because people have been helped and protected by our warnings, perhaps they will also believe our gospel.  We must preach a credible Gospel.

·       God has assigned Christians the duty of being watchmen in the earth.  If we see danger coming, and do not sound the alarm, at least two negative results occur.  One. God holds Christians responsible for all the deaths of victims who were not warned.  Two. Survivors have every reason to blame Christians and Christianity for whatever injuries they received as the result of not being warned.  We must preach a responsible Gospel.

·       Christians are responsible for the total wellbeing of their neighbors, not just Christian neighbors.  Wellbeing includes clothing, food, shelter, and spiritual care (primarily prayer and worship, not meddling); not just for their spiritual “salvation.”  The Church’s task is to lead the world to all the fullness and joy of life, not just an incomplete spiritual part of life.  This task is not complete with conversion.  It does not even begin with conversion.  There is very little reason to believe that a starving person will even hear the Gospel.  We must preach a caring Gospel.

·       Christians are responsible for the salvation of the whole world, not just human welfare, but also animal and plant welfare.  Whatever was damaged by the Fall in Adam, is to be undone, even made better, in part by Christianity.  Some of this is through Christ’s First Coming; some of it must await Christ’s Second Coming.  Nevertheless, to be “in Christ” is to share this responsibility.  We must preach a complete Gospel.

·       Christians are obliged to live lives of kindness and mercy, whether or not tangible results are ever seen.  The risk of this unconditional love is a potential response of anger, bitterness, indifference, or malice.  This means that a caring Gospel is frequently preached in silence.  People cannot be forced to believe.  We must preach a free Gospel.

In sober commitment to these issues, which we love without qualification, we fully expect to be opposed by deception, lying, promotion of discord, and warmongering, which is why we chose Psalm 120 for our header.

Our Thesis

We believe that Dr. Bartlett’s work is unfinished: it must be continued; newer, creative solutions, which may not have been apparent a few years ago, when Dr. Bartlett did his primary investigations, need to be uncovered.  The single human mind is always limited in its abilities: this work needs the contribution of every mind.  New solutions must be found.

We agree with Dr. Bartlett that any solution requires the education and participation of every single one of the earth’s seven billion plus residents.  The problem is of such complexity and magnitude that no one person can possibly see lasting solutions.  Moreover, the problem impinges on human freedom, so it is unreasonable to expect that lasting solutions can be achieved by human coercion of other humans.

We have investigated Dr. Bartlett’s mathematics with rigor and found that his use of mathematics is both correct and precise.  It is the task of the mathematician and the scientist to observe reality and explain exactly how and why it works.  This field is known as mapping; Dr. Bartlett’s mapping speaks with deadly accuracy: he has been faithful in this task.

We also investigated Dr. Bartlett’s data, and observed that his data need updating.  We attempted a partial update of the data, but this is an ongoing task that requires incessant continued surveillance.  Maintaining a good, up-to-date data set is the most difficult part of the mathematical problem.  GIGO explains why.

However, new and shifting data may require new mappings.  When situations are altered, new maps must be used.  There is nothing wrong with the old maps, they may simply be inapplicable to the new situation.  Failing to understand this is like trying to find a place in Denver from a map of Cleveland.

Nevertheless, opponents of truth persist in discrediting and marginalizing legitimate practices of mathematics and science, by conveniently ignoring the need for appropriate mapping.  This abuse is then made into the political or popular lever for claiming that the mathematics and science are incorrect, the mathematicians and scientists are to blame: they put forth a false theory, cried wolf, and lied to the populace.  However, it is not usually the mathematician or scientist who lied, but rather the individuals who found it powerful or profitable to spin the truth to their individual advantage.

That being said, Dr. Bartlett did not determine that constant controlled growth should be the model under which we now live; society determined this model through business, government, and individuals.  Dr. Bartlett simply studied and reported it.  It is not the task of the mathematician or the scientist to determine these objectives.  On the other hand, since objectives are set by business, government, and individuals; objectives can be changed by business, government, and individuals.  Changes will always introduce the need for new data, mapping, and solutions.

It is time for our leaders to change our direction through new positive conservation decisions.

Our Conclusion

These obstacles can defeat us:  1. Unwillingness to change in the face of the facts.  2. Inadvertently or deliberately ignoring the facts.  3. Failure to collect accurate, up-to-date data.  4. Inability to find sufficient meaningful solutions in time to avert catastrophic failure.

This is not a game of blind chance.  This is not a game of fear mongering.  This is a zero-sum game of war: if rationality does not prevail in this war; we, our children, grandchildren, and great- grandchildren will lose.  Deciding not to play is a decision to lose.  If rationality does not prevail, the forces we call nature will make the necessary decisions for us: we will lose and be stranded without the necessary survival map and plan.  Nobody will like the solution.